2011年8月GMAT作文机经AA(至8.26)
1. 本月机经6次
V1. B岛国5年前举办了一场足球赛，随后旅游的人数增加，现在某人建议要再办一个国际体育盛会，预计能带来游客数量上升和经济增长。
V2.一个岛国B 5年前开了一个足球比赛，近三年内游客人数涨了25%。所以说为了促进更多的游客来，我们B应该举行更多的比赛。才能带了更多的游客数量和利润。
原题：The country of Bonaria held a major soccer event five years ago. Therefore, if the country continues to hold major sport events, tourism will increase rapidly in the country and thus bring benefits to the country’s economy.
某个国家5年前办了场运动会，然后发现近三年旅游人数增多鸟，经济都增长了。所以有人提出为了促进经济增长，要再办个国际赛事。
考古：
[v1]一个B城市:5年前hold an succor competition. 发现相比在这个competition 3年前，在这个competition举办后的3年的number of tourists increased 25%。所有呢，这个B城市打算再举办类似的sport event 来吸引游客。这个城市B相信，这个sport event会增加游客人数，同时benefit the country economy.
[v2] AA:5年前办了一个足球比赛，后来旅游发展很好，所以我们应该引进更多的国际体育赛事到B市，就可以吸引游客，带动经济发展
[v3] B国家五年前hosted a international soccer competition 游客增加 所以市长未来想要再办类似的比赛以增加观光收入和国家收益
提供观点：
1、错误的由时间先后推出因果关系
2、过去的成功不能保证将来，存在他因
2. 本月机经3次
一个经理在会议说，他们公司的一家厂的drill bits一美元的成本能生产10个他们公司的其他的厂只能生产7个。所以为了减少成本，他们应该将所有的drill bits 的生产放到 那家厂，从而实现longterm goal。
原题： The following appeared in a presentation by the chief production manager of a machine parts manufacturing company at a management meeting:
“Our factory in Cookville is our most advanced and efficient. It is capable of producing ten drill bits for each dollar of production costs, whereas none of our other factories can produce more than seven drill bits per dollar of production costs. Therefore, we can reduce our overall drill bit production costs by devoting the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production. Since reducing the production costs of individual machine parts is the only way to achieve our larger goal of reducing our overall production costs, dedicating the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production and shifting all other machine part production to our other factories will help us to attain that larger goal.”
提供思路：
这个argument 的思路绕来绕去就是有three mojor flaws: reduce costs by devoting entirely drill bit production to C; the only way to reduce costs is to reduce production costs; shifting the production of the other parts to other factories is the appropriate way to go
针对这三个 direct or indirect conlusions 写就行了
1: although C produce more bits per dollar, the reason may be that C has high- skilled workers, total new and high- quality machines, or less amounts of orders(订单) thus entirely shifting is fallacious, the results may be that the workers may be too tired and have too much burden, the machines would be worn out, and all this could contribute to the lowering of the productivity
2: the management assumes without further more evidence that reucing the productions costs is the only way to enhance cost -effective production process: 可以train workers , 引进new technologies, 定期维修老旧设备，提高management strategy...
3: 就是转移制造这一部分：也许转移制造之后 cargo and transporting fees would roar因为sporadically 分布的 工厂可以及时供货，集中在一个地方不利于 供货， 而且shifting 牵扯到 搬家的费用：那些cumbersome machine怎么转移啊,人员怎么迁移啊。。。这些都是huge expense, may not weighover the elevation of the productivity
3.本月机经5次
V1. 一个公司要在Park Hill district投资三家businesses，寂静上有。
V2.因为过去两年park hill district的三家店，一个*/戏院，一个pizza店，一个golf club收入增长，建议投资公司投在irongate district的三家店，也是*，pizza和golf。另外，建议建立一个机制，在其中两家店消费的顾客在第三家店可以享受折扣，这样可以提升利润和投资汇报
考古
AA：在P district有三家店(theater, pizza, golf club)在过去的两年business都increase了，所以I district也想开这三家店，并且I district决定：如果有去其中两家店的顾客，那么去第三家店可以打折，这样 I district 觉得肯定可以contribute to profit and maximize revenue.
V2:一家capital investment company的recommendation：在Park Hill District 开的三家店XX theater，XX playhouse(貌似，反正不重要)和XX Golf Club，两年前盈利increase了，所以作者建议在另一个district也投资新开三家经营范围类似(但品牌不同)的店;另外，采用a program：上前两家消费的顾客在第三家永久享受折扣——那么这三家店每一家都能盈利并且投资公司能赚到钱。
提供观点：
2、 过去的营业额增长不代表在另一个district开三家店生意能够好，区域之间可能存在差异，错误的类比
3、 推理不充分，这种折扣政策能保证三家店的每一家都盈利么?会不会某一家店承担了过多的折扣?
某地开了高尔夫、披萨店、还有剧院，表现不俗，于是某投资公司决定在B地也开。
原题 125：The following appeared as part of the business plan of the Capital Idea investment firm.
“Across town in the Park Hill district, the Thespian Theater, Pizzazz Pizza, and the Niblick Golf Club have all had business increases within the past two years. Capital Idea should therefore invest in the Roxy Playhouse, the Slice-o’-Pizza, and the Divot Golf Club, three new businesses in the Irongate district. As a condition, we should require them to participate in a special program: Any customer who patronizes two of the businesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. By motivating customers to patronize all three, we will thus contribute to the profitability of each and maximize our return.”
Capital Idea投资公司的商业计划：
在ParkHill区的Thespian剧院，Pizzazz比萨，Niblick高尔夫俱乐部在过去2年都有业务增长。因此Capital Idea应该投资Poxy剧场，Slic-o比萨和Divot高尔夫俱乐部这3家新的Irongate区的企业。为使他们达到条件，我们应该要求他们参加特殊的项目：任何顾客在其中两家消费将在第三家得到折扣。通过刺激顾客在所有3家店消费，我们将增进每一家的利润，从而使我们的回报大化。
观点
The author commits a fallcy of false analogy.
Therefore the proposal of investment in the Irongate district is groundless. No investment should be made until other factors have been considered and the benefit-cost analysis has been made.
The programme suggested by the author is reckless or even ridiculous. The possible result can be the opposite of the author’s imagination because the consumers have interest of only one or two of the three stores.
The business increases occured in the past two years. No one can guarantee the future profit.
The three new companies are not necessarily analogous to those profitable ones.
The condition that is required is absurd. There is no causal relatioship between the condition and the collective profit.
4. 本月机经2次
原题The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine devoted to regional life.
“Corporations should look to the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities or a new location. Even in the recent recession, Helios’s unemployment rate was lower than the regional average. It is the industrial center of the region, and historically it has provided more than its share of the region’s manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios is attempting to expand its economic base by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
一份面向地方生活的杂志上的一篇文章：
企业在寻找新的商机或位置时应该去Helios城。甚至在近的衰退中，Helios的失业率也比地区平均水平低，它是地区的工业中心，历它提供的比它在地区制造业工作中分享的份额中更多。而且，Helios正试图通过吸引研究和发展革新技术的公司来扩张它的经济基础。
提供观点：
1. 作者认为应该到该地区建厂理由是这里的失业率很高。但是却没有给出因果关系。从常理来看这是没有道理的因为失业率高的地方可能更难雇佣到雇员从而使成本增加。
2. 作者认为该地区会鼓励研发，所以应该到该地区投资。但事实上就象作者说的那样该地区是制造业中心怎么可能有很多对技术和科研很熟练的人员。
1， 因为H地区industrial and manufacturing比较attractive，所以那里的工人很可能只适合做这类的，如果缺乏能够做innovative technologies and research的工人labor pool，那么很可能导致失败。
2， H的低失业率更可能成为坏处。因为比如有less available work force。企业必须提高wage才能吸引他们。提高了COST。
3， 错误的假设过去的成功能够代表未来。比方说已经饱和的资源、过分的竞争、以及可能出现的错误政策，都可能导致H地区的经济不再发达。
In this argument corporations are urged to consider the city of Helios when seeking a new location or new business opportunities. To support this recommendation, the author points out that Helios is the industrial center of the region, providing most of the region’s manufacturing jobs and enjoying a lower-than-average unemployment rate. Moreover, it is argued, efforts are currently underway to expand the economic base of the city by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies. This argument is problematic for two reasons.
To begin with, it is questionable whether the available labor pool in Helios could support all types of corporations. Given that Helios has attracted mainly industrial and manufacturing companies in the past, it is unlikely that the local pool of prospective employees would be suitable for corporations of other types. For example, the needs of research and development companies would not be met by a labor force trained in manufacturing skills. For this reason, it’s unlikely that Helios will be successful in its attempt to attract companies that focus or research and development of innovative technologies.
Another problem with the available work force is its size. Due to the lower than average unemployment rate in Helios, corporations that require large numbers of workers would not find Helios attractive. The fact that few persons are out of work suggests that new corporations will have to either attract new workers to Helios or pay the existing workers higher wages in order to lure them away from their current jobs. Neither of these alternatives seems enticing to companies seeking to relocate.
In conclusion, the author has not succeeded in providing compelling reasons for selecting Helios as the site for a company wishing to relocate. In fact, the reasons offered function better as reasons for not relocating to Helios. Nor has the author provided compelling reasons for companies seeking new business opportunities to choose Helios.
5. 本月机经6次
有200个Waymarsh的students参加了一个protest，而the other 12,000 stayed in campus，说所以有人认为那12,000个更好地代表了全state的学生，所以不用响应他们的protest.
原题：去年冬天有200个州立大学的学生去州政府*政府消减这个大学的各种项目费用，但由于其他的12000名大学似乎这个问题不感兴趣，他们或者呆在校园，或者休假。由于200人相对于12000来说，不具有代表性，所以州政府可以不用理睬学生的*。
The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper:
“This past winter, 200 students from Waymarsh State College traveled to the state capitol building to protest against proposed cuts in funding for various state college programs. The other 12,000 Waymarsh students evidently weren’t so concerned about their education: they either stayed on campus or left for winter break. Since the group who did not protest is far more numerous, it is more representative of the state’s college students than are the protesters. Therefore the state legislature need not heed the appeals of the protesting students.”
提供观点：
1. 代表学生的形成方式不知道。如果是随机产生的，那么去反对的学生完全可以代表学生总体。
2. 没去的学生不一定不关心。他们可能有更重要的事情要忙。例如要赶回家过圣诞节。有已经订好的寒假计划等等。
3. 此外，没去的学生之所以没有去很可能是因为他们觉得那些代表足可以代表他们表达心声。
范文：
First, the author assumes that because only one-tenth of the students took part in the protest, these students’ views are unrepresentative of the entire student body. This assumption is unwarranted. If it turns out, for example, that the protesting students were randomly selected from the entire student body, their views would reflect the views of the entire college. Without information regarding the way in which the protesting students were selected, it is presumptuous to conclude that their opinions fail to reflect the opinions of their colleagues.
Second, the author cites the fact that the remaining 12,000 students stayed on campus or left for winter break as evidence that they are not concerned about their education. One obvious rejoinder to this line of reasoning is that the students who did not participate did so with the knowledge that their concerns would be expressed by the protesting students. In any case, the author has failed to demonstrate a logical connection between the students’ alleged lack of concern and the fact that they either stayed on campus or left for winter break. Without this connection, the conclusion reached by the author that the remaining 12,000 students are not concerned about their education is unacceptable.
6. 本月机经3次
一个S国有trade deficit，说好的解决方法是降低它的出口物糖的价格，因为糖是它的国家的主要出口物。说糖的降价能提高其在国际市场的竞争力，同时也能增加糖的sale，从而减少贸易逆差。
原题：The following appeared as part of an article in a weekly newsmagazine:
“The country of Sacchar can best solve its current trade deficit problem by lowering the price of sugar, its primary export. Such an action would make Sacchar better able to compete for markets with other sugar-exporting countries. The sale of Sacchar’s sugar abroad would increase, and this increase would substantially reduce Sacchar’s trade deficit.”
提供观点：
1、比起价格下降而带来的损失产量提高的影响是不是更大不是定数Increasing sales by lowering the price of sugar will not yeild an increase in income unless the increase in sales is sufficient to overcome the loss in income due to the lower price. in the absence of ...
2、可能性价比本来就很有竞争力了不需要降价，也可能价格已经很低了没有降低的空间了
3、降低进口可能是一个更好的办法A trade-deficit occurs when a country spends more on imports than it earns from exports. However, the author provides no evidence that substantiates this assumption. It is possible that revenues from imports will increase dramatically in the near future; if so, the course of action proposed by the author might be unnecessary to solve Sacchar’s trade deficit proplem. To the extent that this is the case...
北美范文
The author of this article argues that the country of Sacchar can best solve its current trade deficit problem by lowering the price of its main export, sugar. The line of reasoning is that this action would make Sacchar more competitive with other sugar-exporting countries, thereby increasing sales of Sacchar’s sugar abroad and, in turn, substantially reducing the trade-deficit. This line of reasoning is unconvincing for a couple of reasons.
In the first place, this argument is based on an oversimplified analysis of the trade deficit problem Sacchar currently faces. A trade-deficit occurs when a country spends more on imports than it earns from exports. The author’s argument relies on the assumption that earnings from imports will remain constant. However, the author provides no evidence that substantiates this assumption. It is possible that revenues from imports will increase dramatically in the near future; if so, the course of action proposed by the author might be unnecessary to solve Sacchar’s trade deficit problem. Conversely, it is possible that revenues from imports are likely to decrease dramatically in the near future. To the extent that this is the case, lowering sugar prices may have a negligible countervailing effect, depending on the demand for Sacchar’s sugar.
In the second place, increasing sales by lowering the price of sugar will not yield an increase in income unless the increase in sales is sufficient to overcome the loss in income due to the lower price. This raises three questions the author fails to address. First, will a price decrease in fact stimulate demand? Second, is demand sufficient to meet the increase in supply? Third, can Sacchar increase the sugar production sufficiently to overcome the deficit? In the absence of answers to these questions, we cannot assess the author’s proposal.
In conclusion, the author provides an incomplete analysis of the problem and, as a result, provides a questionable solution. To better evaluate the proposal, we would need to know how revenues from imports are likely to change in the future. To strengthen the argument, the author must provide evidence that demand is sufficient to meet the proposed increase in supply, and that Sacchar has sufficient resources to accommodate the increase.
7. 本月机经3次
一家音像店用新广告宣传方式后利润大幅增加，所以卖衣服那家也要把报纸广告换成radio advertising
原题：
The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo’s Clothing to the staff:
“Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot’s owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo’s Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot.”(124)
思路参考：
1. 错误类比。Depot Disc是music/entertainment industry而Carol’s Clothing是fashion，之类的。
2. 错误结论。increase of foot traffic可以说是有更多的顾客来或者是顾客在店里呆了更长时间，但是不一定是profit增加了。
3. Clothing store的profit少也许有别的原因，而不是marketing不够。
目前没有参考范文
8. 原题 The following appeared in a letter from a part-owner of a small retail clothing chain to her business partner:
“Commercial real estate prices have been rising steadily in the Sandida Heights neighborhood for several years, while the prices in the adjacent neighborhood of Palm Grove have remained the same. It seems obvious, then, that a retail space in Sandida Heights must now be much more expensive than a similar space in Palm Grove, which was not the case several years ago. So, it appears that retail spaces in Sandida Heights are now overpriced relative to those in Palm Grove. Therefore, it would be in our financial interest to purchase a retail space in Palm Grove rather than in Sandida Heights.”
考古
AA：S和P两个地方，有人说去P买retail space比较划算，因为S近地产一直在涨，P的保持不变，所以S的房价肯定是overestimated的，买P划算。
这个头脑风暴吧，很多可以攻击的
1. S低价涨可能只是广告炒作，真正买的时候可能会有折扣之类的
2. S的价格涨可能是更好的投资，证明当地经济不错
3.P的价格不变可能本来就很高了，所以卖不动也就涨不了价值类的
9. 本月机经2次
S镇公立学校S 什么high school开了200门选修课，街尾一个私立学校只开了80门，结果人家上大学率比公立的高。S校就说要效仿人家，减少选修课量，以让学生focus，也可以减少tax dollar。
No.99 or 101 The following appeared in an editorial from a newspaper serving the town of Saluda.
“The Saluda Consolidated High School offers over 200 different courses from which its students can choose. A much smaller private school down the street offers a basic curriculum of only 80 different courses, but it consistently sends a higher proportion of its graduating seniors on to college than Consolidated does. By eliminating at least half of the courses offered there and focusing on a basic curriculum, we could improve student performance at Consolidated and also save many tax dollars.”
10. 一个公司在其员工中做了民意调查，关于公司需要改进的地方。结果是员工觉得communication between employees and managers 重要。所以公司特别为此开办了由高官主持的communication session，员工自愿参加. 所以，作者认为开办了这么一个班可以很好的改善这个情况。
题库原题：No.64 The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of human resources to the executive officers of
Company X:
“Last year, we surveyed our employees on improvements needed at Company X by having them rank, in order of importance, the issues presented in a list of possible improvements. Improved communications between employees and management was consistently ranked as the issue of highest importance by the employees who responded to the survey. As you know, we have since instituted regular communications sessions conducted by high-level management, which the employees can attend on a voluntary basis. Therefore, it is likely that most employees at Company X now feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been made.”
人力资源经理给X公司的经营主管的备忘录：
去年，我们向员工调查他们认为X公司应该进行的改进，让他们把改进按重要性排列。结果列印为一张可能的改进的表格。根据调查中员工的反应，“加强员工和管理层的沟通”具重要性，稳居调查表之首。如你所知，那以后我们建立了由高层管理人员组织，雇员可以自愿参加的常规交流会。因此，看来X的多数员工认为应该进行的改进已经完成了。
提供观点：
1. The result of a last year’s survey does not necessarily represent the improvement most needed of this year.
2. How was the survey held has not been illustrated by the author, thus making the conclusion groundless.
3. Whether the implement of the mentioned resolution is right or wrong is still unkonwn, it is still too early to say the improvement has been made.
范文:(下文思路单一，两段都是谈调查方法的问题，还可以谈后半部分，“采取了措施就一定能达到目的吗?”)
The Director of Human Resources concludes that most employees at Company X feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been satisfactorily addressed. Two reasons are offered in support of this conclusion. First, a survey of employees showed that the issue respondents were most concerned about was employee-management communication. Second, the company has since instituted regular voluntary sessions for employees and management designed to improve communication. The director’s argument is questionable for two reasons.
To begin with, the validity of the survey is doubtful. Lacking information about the number of employees surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to assess the validity of the results. For example, if 200 employees were surveyed but only two responded, the conclusion that most of the employees ranked employee-management communication as the most pressing issue would be highly suspect. Because the argument offers no evidence that would rule out interpretations such as this, the survey results are insufficient to support the author’s conclusion.
Furthermore, even if the survey accurately ranks certain issues according to level of employee concern, the highest-ranked issue in the survey might not be the issue about which employees are most concerned. Why? The improvement most needed from the point of view of the employees might not have appeared as one of the choices on the survey. For example, if the list of improvements presented on the survey was created by management rather than by the employees, then the issues of greatest concern to the employees might not be included on the list. Lacking information about how the survey was prepared, it is impossible to assess its reliability. Consequently, any conclusion based on it is highly questionable.
In conclusion, the director’s conclusion is not well-founded. To strengthen the argument, additional information regarding the way in which the employee survey was prepared and conducted is required.
11. The Easy Credit Company would比对手更有竞争力吧by donate money to the environmental organizations in using the symbol of logo. From a recent poll, people are concerning about the environmental issues. Therefore, the company will attract more customers and increase the interest rates…
题库原题：34. The following appeared as part of a plan proposed by an executive of the Easy Credit Company to the president.
“The Easy Credit Company would gain an advantage over competing credit card services if we were to donate a portion of the proceeds from the use of our cards to a well-known environmental organization in exchange for the use of its symbol or logo on our card. Since a recent poll shows that a large percentage of the public is concerned about environmental issues, this policy would attract new customers, increase use among existing customers, and enable us to charge interest rates that are higher than the lowest ones available.”
范文：
In this argument the author concludes that the Easy Credit Company would gain several advantages over its competitors by donating a portion of its profits to a well-known environmental organization in exchange for the use of the organization’s logo on their credit card. The author reaches this conclusion on the basis of a recent poll that shows widespread public concern about environmental issues. Among the advantages of this policy, the author foresees an increase in credit card use by existing customers, the ability to charge higher interest rates, and the ability to attract new customers. While the author’s argument has some merit, it suffers from two critical problems.
To begin with, the author assumes that the environmental organization whose logo is sought is concerned with the same environmental issues about which the poll shows widespread concern. However, the author provides no evidence that this is the case. It is possible that very few credit-card users are concerned about the issues that are the organization’s areas of concern; if so, then it is unlikely that the organization’s logo would attract much business for the Easy Credit Company.
Next, the author assumes that the public’s concern about environmental issues will result in its taking steps to do something about the problem—in this case, to use the Easy Credit Company credit card. This assumption is unsupported and runs contrary to experience. Also, it is more reasonable to assume that people who are concerned about a particular cause will choose a more direct means of expressing their concern.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen the argument, the author must show a positive link between the environmental issues about which the public has expressed concern and the issues with which this particular environmental organization is concerned. In addition, the author must provide evidence to support the assumption that concern about a problem will cause people to do something about the problem.
12. 本月机经2次
Montoya 在位期间人口降低，失业率升高， varro在位反之，所以该怎么怎么样。
题库原题11：The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
“In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.”
地方性报纸的编者按：
在Montoya当San Perdito市长的头4年里，人口下降而失业率上升。每当一个新企业开业，就有两个旧的关门。而在Montoya之前Uarro当市长的4年里，失业率下降人口增长。很明显，San Perdito的居民重新选举Varro而非Montoya会得到更好的服务。
提供观点：
1. It is fallacious reasoning unless other possible casual explanations have been considered and ruled out. recession depression downturn低迷时期 is part of a picture of ... mayor
2. set the stage for Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro’s own administration set the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population .
3. availability emotionally intentionally specific specifically anger angry citizen thereby bypass
4. cast one’s vote for sb. eliminate abolish casual emotional appeal
1， 缺乏standard ratio of the closed business to new business in the whole country, 不能说两个倒闭一个开就是坏事，很可能淘汰eliminate through selection or contest了out of date的企业，建立了更多具有competitive advantages 的企业。也是好事。
2， 未排除他因造成了不同。很可能是因为在P在任期间，全国的经济不景气，造成了事业更增加。而不是两个市长的不同。假定过去和现在一样，也是个错误!recession depression downturn低迷时期
北美范文：
The recommendation endorsed in this argument is that residents of San Perdito vote current mayor Montoya out of office, and re-elect former mayor Varro. The reasons cited are that during Montoya’s four years in office the population has decreased while unemployment has increased, whereas during Varro’s term unemployment declined while the population grew. This argument involves the sort of gross oversimplification and emotional appeal typical of political rhetoric; for this reason it is unconvincing.
First of all, the author assumes that the Montoya administration caused the unemployment in San Perdito as well as its population loss. The line of reasoning is that because Montoya was elected before the rise in unemployment and the decline in population, the former event caused the latter. But this is fallacious reasoning unless other possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out. For example, perhaps a statewide or nationwide recession is the cause of these events. Or perhaps the current economic downturn is part of a larger picture of economic cycles and trends, and has nothing to do with who happens to be mayor. Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro’s own administration set the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population the city is now experiencing under Montoya.
Secondly, job availability and the economic health of one’s community are issues that affect people emotionally. The argument at hand might have been intentionally oversimplified for the specific purpose of angering citizens of San Perdito, and thereby turning them against the incumbent mayor. Arguments that bypass relevant, complex reasoning in favor of stirring up emotions do nothing to establish their conclusions; they are also unfair to the parties involved.
In conclusion, I would not cast my vote for Varro on the basis of this weak argument. The author must provide support for the assumption that Mayor Montoya has caused San Perdito’s poor economy. Moreover, such support would have to involve examining and eliminating other possible causal factors. Only with more convincing evidence could this argument become more than just an emotional appeal.
13. 本月机经3次
V1某家公司sales增加，但是profit没有增加，于是想办法。一个办法是reduce costs,具体是在不影响顾客满意度的前提下，lay off 10 employees at each store and eliminate free samples什么的。第二个办法是与一个cafe合作，在store里开这个cafe，因为有survey显示喝咖啡的人与倾向于在store shopping的人是similar的
V2一家G grocer主要卖expensive luxuries，销售增长很快，但利润下降了。公司打算每个店裁掉lay off一部分人，eliminate displays and samples。同时，公司打算让一家Cabaret的coffee shop在商场内开店，因为公司发现咖啡店的顾客与商场的顾客相似。
V3.有一个grocer store，顾客都是富人，在不减少顾客购物体验的条件下，store plans to reduce costs by laying off 10 employees at each stores and eliminating expensive products display and free samples。又提到要和一个coffee cafe合作，因为coffee cafe的顾客群和grocer store的是同一类人，因此合作很有可能会增加去store的顾客，从而增加sales。因此这个plan终会增加sales和profits.
1. 本月机经6次
V1. B岛国5年前举办了一场足球赛，随后旅游的人数增加，现在某人建议要再办一个国际体育盛会，预计能带来游客数量上升和经济增长。
V2.一个岛国B 5年前开了一个足球比赛，近三年内游客人数涨了25%。所以说为了促进更多的游客来，我们B应该举行更多的比赛。才能带了更多的游客数量和利润。
原题：The country of Bonaria held a major soccer event five years ago. Therefore, if the country continues to hold major sport events, tourism will increase rapidly in the country and thus bring benefits to the country’s economy.
某个国家5年前办了场运动会，然后发现近三年旅游人数增多鸟，经济都增长了。所以有人提出为了促进经济增长，要再办个国际赛事。
考古：
[v1]一个B城市:5年前hold an succor competition. 发现相比在这个competition 3年前，在这个competition举办后的3年的number of tourists increased 25%。所有呢，这个B城市打算再举办类似的sport event 来吸引游客。这个城市B相信，这个sport event会增加游客人数，同时benefit the country economy.
[v2] AA:5年前办了一个足球比赛，后来旅游发展很好，所以我们应该引进更多的国际体育赛事到B市，就可以吸引游客，带动经济发展
[v3] B国家五年前hosted a international soccer competition 游客增加 所以市长未来想要再办类似的比赛以增加观光收入和国家收益
提供观点：
1、错误的由时间先后推出因果关系
2、过去的成功不能保证将来，存在他因
2. 本月机经3次
一个经理在会议说，他们公司的一家厂的drill bits一美元的成本能生产10个他们公司的其他的厂只能生产7个。所以为了减少成本，他们应该将所有的drill bits 的生产放到 那家厂，从而实现longterm goal。
原题： The following appeared in a presentation by the chief production manager of a machine parts manufacturing company at a management meeting:
“Our factory in Cookville is our most advanced and efficient. It is capable of producing ten drill bits for each dollar of production costs, whereas none of our other factories can produce more than seven drill bits per dollar of production costs. Therefore, we can reduce our overall drill bit production costs by devoting the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production. Since reducing the production costs of individual machine parts is the only way to achieve our larger goal of reducing our overall production costs, dedicating the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production and shifting all other machine part production to our other factories will help us to attain that larger goal.”
提供思路：
这个argument 的思路绕来绕去就是有three mojor flaws: reduce costs by devoting entirely drill bit production to C; the only way to reduce costs is to reduce production costs; shifting the production of the other parts to other factories is the appropriate way to go
针对这三个 direct or indirect conlusions 写就行了
1: although C produce more bits per dollar, the reason may be that C has high- skilled workers, total new and high- quality machines, or less amounts of orders(订单) thus entirely shifting is fallacious, the results may be that the workers may be too tired and have too much burden, the machines would be worn out, and all this could contribute to the lowering of the productivity
2: the management assumes without further more evidence that reucing the productions costs is the only way to enhance cost -effective production process: 可以train workers , 引进new technologies, 定期维修老旧设备，提高management strategy...
3: 就是转移制造这一部分：也许转移制造之后 cargo and transporting fees would roar因为sporadically 分布的 工厂可以及时供货，集中在一个地方不利于 供货， 而且shifting 牵扯到 搬家的费用：那些cumbersome machine怎么转移啊,人员怎么迁移啊。。。这些都是huge expense, may not weighover the elevation of the productivity
3.本月机经5次
V1. 一个公司要在Park Hill district投资三家businesses，寂静上有。
V2.因为过去两年park hill district的三家店，一个*/戏院，一个pizza店，一个golf club收入增长，建议投资公司投在irongate district的三家店，也是*，pizza和golf。另外，建议建立一个机制，在其中两家店消费的顾客在第三家店可以享受折扣，这样可以提升利润和投资汇报
考古
AA：在P district有三家店(theater, pizza, golf club)在过去的两年business都increase了，所以I district也想开这三家店，并且I district决定：如果有去其中两家店的顾客，那么去第三家店可以打折，这样 I district 觉得肯定可以contribute to profit and maximize revenue.
V2:一家capital investment company的recommendation：在Park Hill District 开的三家店XX theater，XX playhouse(貌似，反正不重要)和XX Golf Club，两年前盈利increase了，所以作者建议在另一个district也投资新开三家经营范围类似(但品牌不同)的店;另外，采用a program：上前两家消费的顾客在第三家永久享受折扣——那么这三家店每一家都能盈利并且投资公司能赚到钱。
提供观点：
2、 过去的营业额增长不代表在另一个district开三家店生意能够好，区域之间可能存在差异，错误的类比
3、 推理不充分，这种折扣政策能保证三家店的每一家都盈利么?会不会某一家店承担了过多的折扣?
某地开了高尔夫、披萨店、还有剧院，表现不俗，于是某投资公司决定在B地也开。
原题 125：The following appeared as part of the business plan of the Capital Idea investment firm.
“Across town in the Park Hill district, the Thespian Theater, Pizzazz Pizza, and the Niblick Golf Club have all had business increases within the past two years. Capital Idea should therefore invest in the Roxy Playhouse, the Slice-o’-Pizza, and the Divot Golf Club, three new businesses in the Irongate district. As a condition, we should require them to participate in a special program: Any customer who patronizes two of the businesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. By motivating customers to patronize all three, we will thus contribute to the profitability of each and maximize our return.”
Capital Idea投资公司的商业计划：
在ParkHill区的Thespian剧院，Pizzazz比萨，Niblick高尔夫俱乐部在过去2年都有业务增长。因此Capital Idea应该投资Poxy剧场，Slic-o比萨和Divot高尔夫俱乐部这3家新的Irongate区的企业。为使他们达到条件，我们应该要求他们参加特殊的项目：任何顾客在其中两家消费将在第三家得到折扣。通过刺激顾客在所有3家店消费，我们将增进每一家的利润，从而使我们的回报大化。
观点
The author commits a fallcy of false analogy.
Therefore the proposal of investment in the Irongate district is groundless. No investment should be made until other factors have been considered and the benefit-cost analysis has been made.
The programme suggested by the author is reckless or even ridiculous. The possible result can be the opposite of the author’s imagination because the consumers have interest of only one or two of the three stores.
The business increases occured in the past two years. No one can guarantee the future profit.
The three new companies are not necessarily analogous to those profitable ones.
The condition that is required is absurd. There is no causal relatioship between the condition and the collective profit.
4. 本月机经2次
原题The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine devoted to regional life.
“Corporations should look to the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities or a new location. Even in the recent recession, Helios’s unemployment rate was lower than the regional average. It is the industrial center of the region, and historically it has provided more than its share of the region’s manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios is attempting to expand its economic base by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
一份面向地方生活的杂志上的一篇文章：
企业在寻找新的商机或位置时应该去Helios城。甚至在近的衰退中，Helios的失业率也比地区平均水平低，它是地区的工业中心，历它提供的比它在地区制造业工作中分享的份额中更多。而且，Helios正试图通过吸引研究和发展革新技术的公司来扩张它的经济基础。
提供观点：
1. 作者认为应该到该地区建厂理由是这里的失业率很高。但是却没有给出因果关系。从常理来看这是没有道理的因为失业率高的地方可能更难雇佣到雇员从而使成本增加。
2. 作者认为该地区会鼓励研发，所以应该到该地区投资。但事实上就象作者说的那样该地区是制造业中心怎么可能有很多对技术和科研很熟练的人员。
1， 因为H地区industrial and manufacturing比较attractive，所以那里的工人很可能只适合做这类的，如果缺乏能够做innovative technologies and research的工人labor pool，那么很可能导致失败。
2， H的低失业率更可能成为坏处。因为比如有less available work force。企业必须提高wage才能吸引他们。提高了COST。
3， 错误的假设过去的成功能够代表未来。比方说已经饱和的资源、过分的竞争、以及可能出现的错误政策，都可能导致H地区的经济不再发达。
In this argument corporations are urged to consider the city of Helios when seeking a new location or new business opportunities. To support this recommendation, the author points out that Helios is the industrial center of the region, providing most of the region’s manufacturing jobs and enjoying a lower-than-average unemployment rate. Moreover, it is argued, efforts are currently underway to expand the economic base of the city by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies. This argument is problematic for two reasons.
To begin with, it is questionable whether the available labor pool in Helios could support all types of corporations. Given that Helios has attracted mainly industrial and manufacturing companies in the past, it is unlikely that the local pool of prospective employees would be suitable for corporations of other types. For example, the needs of research and development companies would not be met by a labor force trained in manufacturing skills. For this reason, it’s unlikely that Helios will be successful in its attempt to attract companies that focus or research and development of innovative technologies.
Another problem with the available work force is its size. Due to the lower than average unemployment rate in Helios, corporations that require large numbers of workers would not find Helios attractive. The fact that few persons are out of work suggests that new corporations will have to either attract new workers to Helios or pay the existing workers higher wages in order to lure them away from their current jobs. Neither of these alternatives seems enticing to companies seeking to relocate.
In conclusion, the author has not succeeded in providing compelling reasons for selecting Helios as the site for a company wishing to relocate. In fact, the reasons offered function better as reasons for not relocating to Helios. Nor has the author provided compelling reasons for companies seeking new business opportunities to choose Helios.
5. 本月机经6次
有200个Waymarsh的students参加了一个protest，而the other 12,000 stayed in campus，说所以有人认为那12,000个更好地代表了全state的学生，所以不用响应他们的protest.
原题：去年冬天有200个州立大学的学生去州政府*政府消减这个大学的各种项目费用，但由于其他的12000名大学似乎这个问题不感兴趣，他们或者呆在校园，或者休假。由于200人相对于12000来说，不具有代表性，所以州政府可以不用理睬学生的*。
The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper:
“This past winter, 200 students from Waymarsh State College traveled to the state capitol building to protest against proposed cuts in funding for various state college programs. The other 12,000 Waymarsh students evidently weren’t so concerned about their education: they either stayed on campus or left for winter break. Since the group who did not protest is far more numerous, it is more representative of the state’s college students than are the protesters. Therefore the state legislature need not heed the appeals of the protesting students.”
提供观点：
1. 代表学生的形成方式不知道。如果是随机产生的，那么去反对的学生完全可以代表学生总体。
2. 没去的学生不一定不关心。他们可能有更重要的事情要忙。例如要赶回家过圣诞节。有已经订好的寒假计划等等。
3. 此外，没去的学生之所以没有去很可能是因为他们觉得那些代表足可以代表他们表达心声。
范文：
First, the author assumes that because only one-tenth of the students took part in the protest, these students’ views are unrepresentative of the entire student body. This assumption is unwarranted. If it turns out, for example, that the protesting students were randomly selected from the entire student body, their views would reflect the views of the entire college. Without information regarding the way in which the protesting students were selected, it is presumptuous to conclude that their opinions fail to reflect the opinions of their colleagues.
Second, the author cites the fact that the remaining 12,000 students stayed on campus or left for winter break as evidence that they are not concerned about their education. One obvious rejoinder to this line of reasoning is that the students who did not participate did so with the knowledge that their concerns would be expressed by the protesting students. In any case, the author has failed to demonstrate a logical connection between the students’ alleged lack of concern and the fact that they either stayed on campus or left for winter break. Without this connection, the conclusion reached by the author that the remaining 12,000 students are not concerned about their education is unacceptable.
6. 本月机经3次
一个S国有trade deficit，说好的解决方法是降低它的出口物糖的价格，因为糖是它的国家的主要出口物。说糖的降价能提高其在国际市场的竞争力，同时也能增加糖的sale，从而减少贸易逆差。
原题：The following appeared as part of an article in a weekly newsmagazine:
“The country of Sacchar can best solve its current trade deficit problem by lowering the price of sugar, its primary export. Such an action would make Sacchar better able to compete for markets with other sugar-exporting countries. The sale of Sacchar’s sugar abroad would increase, and this increase would substantially reduce Sacchar’s trade deficit.”
提供观点：
1、比起价格下降而带来的损失产量提高的影响是不是更大不是定数Increasing sales by lowering the price of sugar will not yeild an increase in income unless the increase in sales is sufficient to overcome the loss in income due to the lower price. in the absence of ...
2、可能性价比本来就很有竞争力了不需要降价，也可能价格已经很低了没有降低的空间了
3、降低进口可能是一个更好的办法A trade-deficit occurs when a country spends more on imports than it earns from exports. However, the author provides no evidence that substantiates this assumption. It is possible that revenues from imports will increase dramatically in the near future; if so, the course of action proposed by the author might be unnecessary to solve Sacchar’s trade deficit proplem. To the extent that this is the case...
北美范文
The author of this article argues that the country of Sacchar can best solve its current trade deficit problem by lowering the price of its main export, sugar. The line of reasoning is that this action would make Sacchar more competitive with other sugar-exporting countries, thereby increasing sales of Sacchar’s sugar abroad and, in turn, substantially reducing the trade-deficit. This line of reasoning is unconvincing for a couple of reasons.
In the first place, this argument is based on an oversimplified analysis of the trade deficit problem Sacchar currently faces. A trade-deficit occurs when a country spends more on imports than it earns from exports. The author’s argument relies on the assumption that earnings from imports will remain constant. However, the author provides no evidence that substantiates this assumption. It is possible that revenues from imports will increase dramatically in the near future; if so, the course of action proposed by the author might be unnecessary to solve Sacchar’s trade deficit problem. Conversely, it is possible that revenues from imports are likely to decrease dramatically in the near future. To the extent that this is the case, lowering sugar prices may have a negligible countervailing effect, depending on the demand for Sacchar’s sugar.
In the second place, increasing sales by lowering the price of sugar will not yield an increase in income unless the increase in sales is sufficient to overcome the loss in income due to the lower price. This raises three questions the author fails to address. First, will a price decrease in fact stimulate demand? Second, is demand sufficient to meet the increase in supply? Third, can Sacchar increase the sugar production sufficiently to overcome the deficit? In the absence of answers to these questions, we cannot assess the author’s proposal.
In conclusion, the author provides an incomplete analysis of the problem and, as a result, provides a questionable solution. To better evaluate the proposal, we would need to know how revenues from imports are likely to change in the future. To strengthen the argument, the author must provide evidence that demand is sufficient to meet the proposed increase in supply, and that Sacchar has sufficient resources to accommodate the increase.
7. 本月机经3次
一家音像店用新广告宣传方式后利润大幅增加，所以卖衣服那家也要把报纸广告换成radio advertising
原题：
The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo’s Clothing to the staff:
“Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot’s owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo’s Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot.”(124)
思路参考：
1. 错误类比。Depot Disc是music/entertainment industry而Carol’s Clothing是fashion，之类的。
2. 错误结论。increase of foot traffic可以说是有更多的顾客来或者是顾客在店里呆了更长时间，但是不一定是profit增加了。
3. Clothing store的profit少也许有别的原因，而不是marketing不够。
目前没有参考范文
8. 原题 The following appeared in a letter from a part-owner of a small retail clothing chain to her business partner:
“Commercial real estate prices have been rising steadily in the Sandida Heights neighborhood for several years, while the prices in the adjacent neighborhood of Palm Grove have remained the same. It seems obvious, then, that a retail space in Sandida Heights must now be much more expensive than a similar space in Palm Grove, which was not the case several years ago. So, it appears that retail spaces in Sandida Heights are now overpriced relative to those in Palm Grove. Therefore, it would be in our financial interest to purchase a retail space in Palm Grove rather than in Sandida Heights.”
考古
AA：S和P两个地方，有人说去P买retail space比较划算，因为S近地产一直在涨，P的保持不变，所以S的房价肯定是overestimated的，买P划算。
这个头脑风暴吧，很多可以攻击的
1. S低价涨可能只是广告炒作，真正买的时候可能会有折扣之类的
2. S的价格涨可能是更好的投资，证明当地经济不错
3.P的价格不变可能本来就很高了，所以卖不动也就涨不了价值类的
9. 本月机经2次
S镇公立学校S 什么high school开了200门选修课，街尾一个私立学校只开了80门，结果人家上大学率比公立的高。S校就说要效仿人家，减少选修课量，以让学生focus，也可以减少tax dollar。
No.99 or 101 The following appeared in an editorial from a newspaper serving the town of Saluda.
“The Saluda Consolidated High School offers over 200 different courses from which its students can choose. A much smaller private school down the street offers a basic curriculum of only 80 different courses, but it consistently sends a higher proportion of its graduating seniors on to college than Consolidated does. By eliminating at least half of the courses offered there and focusing on a basic curriculum, we could improve student performance at Consolidated and also save many tax dollars.”
10. 一个公司在其员工中做了民意调查，关于公司需要改进的地方。结果是员工觉得communication between employees and managers 重要。所以公司特别为此开办了由高官主持的communication session，员工自愿参加. 所以，作者认为开办了这么一个班可以很好的改善这个情况。
题库原题：No.64 The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of human resources to the executive officers of
Company X:
“Last year, we surveyed our employees on improvements needed at Company X by having them rank, in order of importance, the issues presented in a list of possible improvements. Improved communications between employees and management was consistently ranked as the issue of highest importance by the employees who responded to the survey. As you know, we have since instituted regular communications sessions conducted by high-level management, which the employees can attend on a voluntary basis. Therefore, it is likely that most employees at Company X now feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been made.”
人力资源经理给X公司的经营主管的备忘录：
去年，我们向员工调查他们认为X公司应该进行的改进，让他们把改进按重要性排列。结果列印为一张可能的改进的表格。根据调查中员工的反应，“加强员工和管理层的沟通”具重要性，稳居调查表之首。如你所知，那以后我们建立了由高层管理人员组织，雇员可以自愿参加的常规交流会。因此，看来X的多数员工认为应该进行的改进已经完成了。
提供观点：
1. The result of a last year’s survey does not necessarily represent the improvement most needed of this year.
2. How was the survey held has not been illustrated by the author, thus making the conclusion groundless.
3. Whether the implement of the mentioned resolution is right or wrong is still unkonwn, it is still too early to say the improvement has been made.
范文:(下文思路单一，两段都是谈调查方法的问题，还可以谈后半部分，“采取了措施就一定能达到目的吗?”)
The Director of Human Resources concludes that most employees at Company X feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been satisfactorily addressed. Two reasons are offered in support of this conclusion. First, a survey of employees showed that the issue respondents were most concerned about was employee-management communication. Second, the company has since instituted regular voluntary sessions for employees and management designed to improve communication. The director’s argument is questionable for two reasons.
To begin with, the validity of the survey is doubtful. Lacking information about the number of employees surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to assess the validity of the results. For example, if 200 employees were surveyed but only two responded, the conclusion that most of the employees ranked employee-management communication as the most pressing issue would be highly suspect. Because the argument offers no evidence that would rule out interpretations such as this, the survey results are insufficient to support the author’s conclusion.
Furthermore, even if the survey accurately ranks certain issues according to level of employee concern, the highest-ranked issue in the survey might not be the issue about which employees are most concerned. Why? The improvement most needed from the point of view of the employees might not have appeared as one of the choices on the survey. For example, if the list of improvements presented on the survey was created by management rather than by the employees, then the issues of greatest concern to the employees might not be included on the list. Lacking information about how the survey was prepared, it is impossible to assess its reliability. Consequently, any conclusion based on it is highly questionable.
In conclusion, the director’s conclusion is not well-founded. To strengthen the argument, additional information regarding the way in which the employee survey was prepared and conducted is required.
11. The Easy Credit Company would比对手更有竞争力吧by donate money to the environmental organizations in using the symbol of logo. From a recent poll, people are concerning about the environmental issues. Therefore, the company will attract more customers and increase the interest rates…
题库原题：34. The following appeared as part of a plan proposed by an executive of the Easy Credit Company to the president.
“The Easy Credit Company would gain an advantage over competing credit card services if we were to donate a portion of the proceeds from the use of our cards to a well-known environmental organization in exchange for the use of its symbol or logo on our card. Since a recent poll shows that a large percentage of the public is concerned about environmental issues, this policy would attract new customers, increase use among existing customers, and enable us to charge interest rates that are higher than the lowest ones available.”
范文：
In this argument the author concludes that the Easy Credit Company would gain several advantages over its competitors by donating a portion of its profits to a well-known environmental organization in exchange for the use of the organization’s logo on their credit card. The author reaches this conclusion on the basis of a recent poll that shows widespread public concern about environmental issues. Among the advantages of this policy, the author foresees an increase in credit card use by existing customers, the ability to charge higher interest rates, and the ability to attract new customers. While the author’s argument has some merit, it suffers from two critical problems.
To begin with, the author assumes that the environmental organization whose logo is sought is concerned with the same environmental issues about which the poll shows widespread concern. However, the author provides no evidence that this is the case. It is possible that very few credit-card users are concerned about the issues that are the organization’s areas of concern; if so, then it is unlikely that the organization’s logo would attract much business for the Easy Credit Company.
Next, the author assumes that the public’s concern about environmental issues will result in its taking steps to do something about the problem—in this case, to use the Easy Credit Company credit card. This assumption is unsupported and runs contrary to experience. Also, it is more reasonable to assume that people who are concerned about a particular cause will choose a more direct means of expressing their concern.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen the argument, the author must show a positive link between the environmental issues about which the public has expressed concern and the issues with which this particular environmental organization is concerned. In addition, the author must provide evidence to support the assumption that concern about a problem will cause people to do something about the problem.
12. 本月机经2次
Montoya 在位期间人口降低，失业率升高， varro在位反之，所以该怎么怎么样。
题库原题11：The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
“In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.”
地方性报纸的编者按：
在Montoya当San Perdito市长的头4年里，人口下降而失业率上升。每当一个新企业开业，就有两个旧的关门。而在Montoya之前Uarro当市长的4年里，失业率下降人口增长。很明显，San Perdito的居民重新选举Varro而非Montoya会得到更好的服务。
提供观点：
1. It is fallacious reasoning unless other possible casual explanations have been considered and ruled out. recession depression downturn低迷时期 is part of a picture of ... mayor
2. set the stage for Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro’s own administration set the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population .
3. availability emotionally intentionally specific specifically anger angry citizen thereby bypass
4. cast one’s vote for sb. eliminate abolish casual emotional appeal
1， 缺乏standard ratio of the closed business to new business in the whole country, 不能说两个倒闭一个开就是坏事，很可能淘汰eliminate through selection or contest了out of date的企业，建立了更多具有competitive advantages 的企业。也是好事。
2， 未排除他因造成了不同。很可能是因为在P在任期间，全国的经济不景气，造成了事业更增加。而不是两个市长的不同。假定过去和现在一样，也是个错误!recession depression downturn低迷时期
北美范文：
The recommendation endorsed in this argument is that residents of San Perdito vote current mayor Montoya out of office, and re-elect former mayor Varro. The reasons cited are that during Montoya’s four years in office the population has decreased while unemployment has increased, whereas during Varro’s term unemployment declined while the population grew. This argument involves the sort of gross oversimplification and emotional appeal typical of political rhetoric; for this reason it is unconvincing.
First of all, the author assumes that the Montoya administration caused the unemployment in San Perdito as well as its population loss. The line of reasoning is that because Montoya was elected before the rise in unemployment and the decline in population, the former event caused the latter. But this is fallacious reasoning unless other possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out. For example, perhaps a statewide or nationwide recession is the cause of these events. Or perhaps the current economic downturn is part of a larger picture of economic cycles and trends, and has nothing to do with who happens to be mayor. Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro’s own administration set the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population the city is now experiencing under Montoya.
Secondly, job availability and the economic health of one’s community are issues that affect people emotionally. The argument at hand might have been intentionally oversimplified for the specific purpose of angering citizens of San Perdito, and thereby turning them against the incumbent mayor. Arguments that bypass relevant, complex reasoning in favor of stirring up emotions do nothing to establish their conclusions; they are also unfair to the parties involved.
In conclusion, I would not cast my vote for Varro on the basis of this weak argument. The author must provide support for the assumption that Mayor Montoya has caused San Perdito’s poor economy. Moreover, such support would have to involve examining and eliminating other possible causal factors. Only with more convincing evidence could this argument become more than just an emotional appeal.
13. 本月机经3次
V1某家公司sales增加，但是profit没有增加，于是想办法。一个办法是reduce costs,具体是在不影响顾客满意度的前提下，lay off 10 employees at each store and eliminate free samples什么的。第二个办法是与一个cafe合作，在store里开这个cafe，因为有survey显示喝咖啡的人与倾向于在store shopping的人是similar的
V2一家G grocer主要卖expensive luxuries，销售增长很快，但利润下降了。公司打算每个店裁掉lay off一部分人，eliminate displays and samples。同时，公司打算让一家Cabaret的coffee shop在商场内开店，因为公司发现咖啡店的顾客与商场的顾客相似。
V3.有一个grocer store，顾客都是富人，在不减少顾客购物体验的条件下，store plans to reduce costs by laying off 10 employees at each stores and eliminating expensive products display and free samples。又提到要和一个coffee cafe合作，因为coffee cafe的顾客群和grocer store的是同一类人，因此合作很有可能会增加去store的顾客，从而增加sales。因此这个plan终会增加sales和profits.
