题库原题11：The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
“In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito， the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro， who served as mayor for four years before Montoya， the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly， the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.”
地方性报纸的编者按：
在Montoya当San Perdito市长的头4年里，人口下降而失业率上升。每当一个新企业开业，就有两个旧的关门。而在Montoya之前Uarro当市长的4年里，失业率下降人口增长。很明显，San Perdito的居民重新选举Varro而非Montoya会得到更好的服务。
提供观点：
1. It is fallacious reasoning unless other possible casual explanations have been considered and ruled out. recession depression downturn低迷时期 is part of a picture of 。.. mayor
2. set the stage for Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro’s own administration set the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population 。
3. availability emotionally intentionally specific specifically anger angry citizen thereby bypass
4. cast one’s vote for sb. eliminate abolish casual emotional appeal
1， 缺乏standard ratio of the closed business to new business in the whole country， 不能说两个倒闭一个开就是坏事，很可能淘汰eliminate through selection or contest了out of date的企业，建立了更多具有competitive advantages 的企业。也是好事。
2， 未排除他因造成了不同。很可能是因为在P在任期间，全国的经济不景气，造成了事业更增加。而不是两个市长的不同。假定过去和现在一样，也是个错误！recession depression downturn低迷时期
